Greedy Goblin

Tuesday, October 25, 2016

Why nation-building fails?

There were multiple attempts by the USA and its European allies to change dictatorships into democracies. After trillions of dollars and nearly a million lives spent, these countries are worse than before and Western people look puzzled.

I can easily explain why it was a hopeless move from the start by a bizarre example: Europe going nation building to the USA. So, we're outraged by the very high gun violence rate of the USA and decided to save them. How could we stop gun violence? By collecting the guns silly! In European countries where only police, military and secret agency officers can hold a gun, gun violence is practically unknown and other violence is low too. So all we have to do is going door to door and collect the guns of the gun-nuts.

Anyone who lives in the USA can predict how this campaign would end, even with sufficient military force. Exactly as the US campaign in the Middle East: lots of dead and worse situation than before. Why? Because gun ownership is deeply integrated to the American culture. The gun owners see it as an important part of their freedom. It doesn't matter if it's objectively wrong (in a sense that if research proves that gun ownership correlates with violent deaths), they will fight for it. Sure, with enough force they can be defeated, but every death makes their friends and relatives hate the invaders more. Since the people are connected many ways, even if the European army is perfectly free of collateral damage (good luck with that) and only kills gun nuts who open fire first, soon everyone would have a friend or family member killed by it. The point is that even if he personally agree with the end goal, he is upset about the cost: "Uncle Tom was a loud, racist gun nut, and I wish he wasn't, but he didn't deserve to be shot in his own home".

Now replace "gun nut" with "Vahabite", "Kurdish nationalist", "Shia fundamentalist" or "Pastu tribe-member" and you just got Iraq, Syria or Afghanistan.

I would suggest to American politicians the "gun nut" rule. If they want to change something in the World using some method, they should ask the question "would the same method work on gun nuts". If not, it won't work on any other group who strongly identifies with something "we" see dumb. The only things that work are education and protecting the non-X-nut people from the X-nuts. Just like as you can't bring a gun to a privately owned business if the owner doesn't allow it, you can plant shopping malls in the friendly Middle Eastern countries where burkas are not allowed and guards protect women from abuse.

Please don't start an argument over USA gun laws! The point is exactly that a non-American can't understand what guns means to an American, so he shouldn't interfere. "Gun nut" is not my opinion, it's the opinion of the theoretical "Save America from Violence" military operation, a term gun-opposers use in the same sense as "Islamic radical" used by the democracy advocates.

Monday, October 24, 2016

Only yes means yes

On March 27th 1977, after a bunch of confusion and delay caused by a minor terrorist attack, Jacob Veldhuyzen van Zanten, famous top pilot of KLM airways was at the helm of his trusted Boeing 747 at the end of the runway. The plane was refilled, the weather was foggy, but this would all be over soon and they'll be out of this small airport not really suitable for the greatest airplane of that time. He finally heard what he wanted to hear:
"KLM eight seven zero five uh you are cleared to the Papa Beacon climb to and maintain flight level nine zero right turn after take-off proceed with heading zero four zero until intercepting the three two five radial from Las Palmas VOR."
- We're going! - he replied and set the engines full throttle.
- OK! - was the response from the tower.
There was some garbled transmission covered by interference on the radio, but he didn't care. The nose of the plane cut into the dense fog as they accelerated to takeoff speed.

Suddenly the fog revealed another Boeing 747 airliner, coming right at his. He tried to pull the plane up, but couldn't get enough altitude. Few seconds later 583 people, including the captain were dead. The reason? The tower operator told him a lot of positive things that he wanted to hear. Things that encouraged him to do what he wanted: take off. But the tower did not tell him that he is cleared for takeoff. Actually the recording of the tower contained "Stand by for take-off, I will call you.", but the captain couldn't hear it, since the other 747 pilot talked at the same time, causing garbled noise on the radio.

To prevent this ever happening again, the "only yes means yes" rule was introduced in air control. "Departure" must be used for various activities needed for a plane leaving an airport. "Takeoff" must only be used for the actual act of "engines to full, nose up". Unless a pilot loudly and clearly gets "you are cleared for takeoff", he must not take off, no matter how many "OK", "fine", "roger" or cleared flight information he gets. Only a clear yes means yes, to prevent misunderstandings in something that can cause permanent damage to people.

I think it's a good rule.

Friday, October 21, 2016

The (EVE) media is poor, so cheap

I read Riverini in disbelief, that "A good portion of the isk came from the five advertisers we had on the site, each paying a sum of about 3 ~ 5 bil/mo each, rounding it to about 20 – 30 bil of income per month." Then I read the Goon propaganda site - which is finally renamed to "Imperium News", acknowledging that they are the Goon propaganda site - that they offer "Write something related to Eve Online and receive 300m isk." Assuming 1 posts per day, that's 9B/month. Even with 3 posts it's just 27.

Jesus, these people are dirt poor. No wonder IWI could buy his narrative with pennies. If I had any idea how cheap these people are, I'd throw 1/4 of my GRR money to EN24 and no one would question that it was me who brought Goons down.

And I mean it literally. Media has huge power to influence socials (if it's written by "relevant people", it must be true) and this influence is on sale. Lenny often linked articles as evidence of his exploits - articles he bought, instead of any original sources. Lenny never had - or even claimed to have - any evidence that he did anything. He was merely credited by "everyone".

So I made a mistake not even checking the prices of EN24, assuming they are - like a blogger who writes for his own passion - not for sale, at least not for trivial sums. I could reach much more people by buying articles there. This reminds me of the "media conspiracies" that Trump assumes, while it's likely similar deals. The journalists, working for pennies will write anything the client wants. Instead of crying "rigged NYT working for Clintons", he could just buy it.

The media is nothing but a soapbox for the rich. And not in the sense of "rich as a government", but "top 0.1% earner." I could buy EN24 with less than half of my EVE income if I ever thought of buying it.

PS: some kids took League of Legends too seriously.

Thursday, October 20, 2016

Oh look, Falcon's nazis are still here!

Since IWI is gone and casinos are banned, people are nagging me to come back to EVE. They are naive. CCP didn't ban these RMT-ers because they reformed. CCP issued bans because I threatened them with sending anti-gambling authorities after them. They are the same old corrupted mess. You want evidence of their continued wrongdoing? Here it is!

Two weeks ago, Reddit exploded that TISHU members used Nazi symbolism on their Alliance Tournament ships: they placed 1488 Gas canisters into them, referring to the neo-nazi code and the Holocaust. Due to the outrage, CCP Falcon jumped in:

Having long experience with that human garbage, I was instantly sure, that this is a coverup. He makes an angry statement to ensure people that they are handling this case, then sweep it below the carpet. And I was right, as usual with my EVE "conspiracies". Below you can see the AT ships of the neo-nazis and their latest killboard activity: Falcon's neo-Nazis didn't even got a temporary suspension. So much for "we're looking to it". They looked, they laughed, they probably bought some beers and that was it. Do you want to play a game, where open neo-Nazi propaganda is welcomed?!

PS: please link it on r/eve, let them know how much CCP values their concerns!

Wednesday, October 19, 2016

"The election is rigged" of Trump

Donald Trump now claims that the election will be rigged without any evidence. People take it as a rationalization why he'll lose. I think they are wrong, if he'd think he'll lose in a fair fight, he could just pull out as suggested and let Mike Pence try his luck. No, I think he is just telling what he believes.

What he believes is factually wrong. The election is handled locally, large scale fraud would need a conspiration of tens of thousands of people, many of them Republicans reporting to a Republican Governor.

But we should know better already that Trump often uses hyperboles and inaccurate terms. What he means is that the political system as whole is "rigged". I think he entered pretty naively with no clue what's waiting for him.
  • He expected plans and programs to be presented and the people will choose. Instead he found ad hominem attacks on "irrelevant personal issues".
  • He expected the media to reporting about the happenings. Instead he found that they act as extension of the Clinton campaign.
  • He expected his party to follow him to Heaven or Hell. Instead he found that they jump ship as soon as they think it'll sink.
  • He expected the FBI to properly investigate Clinton. Instead he found that Clinton got away with mishandling hundreds of secrets. He found that there isn't even an investigation on the hundred millions of dollars she got for "speeches" (obvious bribes).
I can continue this list forever. Of course no one with experience with politics are a bit surprised on anything he found. We expected exactly what happened: dirt-flinging, partisan media, opportunistic allies and immunity for politicians from laws. He is outraged and think it's a conspiracy against him, while politics was always that bad. Bill Clinton was impeached for Monica, not policies; the media gladly echoed the lies of W Bush about the Iraqi nukes and Obama didn't lock him up even when it was clear that he started a war based on lies and widely used torture. OK, party leaders jumping ship weeks before the election is unprecedented.

This is why he isn't laughed off the stage, but 41% of the people believe the same. Because people are outraged by these things and want the whole establishment gone. This is why 37% of the people would still vote for him. This is why 15% would vote for a candidate with no chance to win. And this is a problem that won't go away on Nov 8.

On a personal note: I can empathize with him. When out of the blue Falcon attacked me, I was similarly shocked and outraged. I expected the devs be impartial stewards of the game and not partisan participants. My reaction was the same as his: burn the whole system down. So when I tell what I'd do in his place, there is a chance he plans the same thing: boycott the election, tell his people to don't accept the Clinton government, protest, sue, riot. Not for revenge, but in the hope that the establishment will be forced to change.

Tuesday, October 18, 2016

Why 1:1 trades are bad in League of Legends

I managed to bring myself back to Silver 5. Which is pretty bad. Since I was in Silver 3, there is something other than bad motor skills behind it. I'm doing something worse. I still grab dragons, I still avoid being ganked, I still gank and I must have slightly better motor skills than I had weeks ago (that improves over practice).

So I must be doing something yes-or-no wrong. And that's going for risky kills. As my motor skills and champion knowledge improved, I'm able to do things I couldn't a week ago: score a kill under enemy tower or at front of other enemies. Sure, I die often doing it, but I scored a kill, so who cares?

Well, I should, if I ever want to climb higher. 1:1 trades (kill and die) are very bad. While they are equal for the team, it's very unequal within the team. By being dead I give up farm. Sure, by killing an enemy, he also loses farm, so it seems fine. But I get behind my own teammates and those enemies who aren't dumb feeders. By getting behind, I lose control over the game. Even if the team doesn't get behind, the control is shifted to my random teammates, which naturally leads to average results: staying in Silver 5 as the median people do.

This is something that I learned in WoW but failed to adapt it: the opposing team is an obstacle to overcome. The enemy is the M&S in my own team. I should get them killed in order to get myself kills instead of sacrificing myself for getting them kills. Preserving myself should be more important than getting kills.

The most dangerous mistake I do is starting teamfights. Even if I do it right and "we" win, I die, often without any killing blow, so I get behind and my random teammates get fed. I must change my playstyle to a killer instead of a tank. I must lurk behind the others and jump in for a kill instead of letting them kill.

Philosophically: I must play as selfishly as I can. It's hard to understand why I didn't recognize it earlier.

Monday, October 17, 2016

Sion being Sion (Same for KyleAparthos)

Sion "book deal" Kumitomo "leaked" a disgusting piece of harmful propaganda. Harmful to Goons mostly and evidence that Goons learned nothing from their defeat.

In this bizarre post he describes a botched threesome between Eep (leader of IWI, now banned for RMT, his site banned too), an SMA director and her boyfriend as a reason for the downfall of the CFC. Seriously. And the pathetic loser social "Goons" believe it otherwise they'd fire him long ago.

I'm not saying it's not true. It's just horribly irrelevant. Goons were defeated because they were weaker than their enemies. That's the one and only reason of their defeat. They had few PvP-ers, they fed killers very hard, they were poor as dirt and they had no respect for their allies. Why they were attacked is irrelevant. Yet Sion focuses on this and literally says "Had SMA been open with us in the beginning, we could have headed the whole thing off easily, and would likely still be burbling along happily in Dek."

No you obviously wouldn't you morons! Even if you believe that IWI had significant part in your defeat, you must see that someone else would have done it if he didn't. You had lucrative space, you were hated by everyone who wasn't you and you were weak!

But socials fall for this nonsense, since it means "it wasn't our fault" and also "human relations matter". Neither is true. CODE made miners very mad. They really-really want CODE be defeated. But they couldn't do anything except hateposting. Similarly, the story - if true - could only explain why an RMTing nobody hated the CFC. It cannot explain how could an RMTing nobody do anything more than hateposting.

Then KyleAparthos came along and gave his criticism to the story: "The TLDR of it is "IWI banker gets kicked, IWI tries to lean on SMA to get his shit back, Widget/Winet totally think they can handle this, turns out the situation is much bigger than anyone realizes." Which is just as pathetic and wrong as the Sion version. Widget/Winet totally supposed to be right that they can handle it. If the same happened with anyone else, they would have done the same thing as Winet. Can you imagine Vince, Grath, UaXDeath, Sapporo or even Sion himself reimburse a neutral who was scammed by their member for couple hundred of billions?! It's a bizarre idea! The difference is that Winet had no guns to support his attitude, nor loyal members who'd wither a storm in an NPC stations, undocking in kitchen sink to harass the intruders.

The reason of defeat is always weakness. If CCP Falcon wasn't around, I'd evict Goons from Delve just to prove this point. Imagine how much content would that be for pilots involved.